Altcoins are attempting a recovery, but will it last? Let’s analyze the charts.
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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Goldman Sachs is positive on Bitcoin. In a note, one of the firm’s analysts has projected a short-term target of $12,916 to $13,971, after which it might enter a consolidation. For the long term, the analyst considers the current move as the first leg of the five wave count, which means that the analyst believes the leading cryptocurrency has a lot of room to run and views dips as buying opportunity as long as the price does not drop below $9,084.
While many are bullish on Bitcoin, altcoins led by Ether are not finding much love. However, in a poll by Nik Patel, the author of “An Altcoin Trader’s Handbook,” 54% of the participants were bullish and expected Ether to trade above $1,000 sometime in the future.
China, which was planning its own digital currency to counter Libra and U.S. dollar-based stablecoins, has developed a prototype that adopts a blockchain architecture. PBoC deputy director Mu Changchun has said that China’s digital currency “can now be said to be ready.” Though it will be digital money backed by the central bank, it will force other nations to move in this direction.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been holding above the downtrend line and both moving averages for the past two days, but it has failed to rebound sharply. The trend remains positive as both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is above 50. However, failure of the price to pick up momentum after breaking out of the downtrend line warrants caution.
Both moving averages and the downtrend line are located at the same place, which makes it a strong support. If the BTC/USD pair rebounds sharply and rises above $12,304.37, it can move up to $13,156.96 and above it to $13,973.50. Hence, traders can continue to hold the long position with stops at the breakeven. However, if the price plummets below both moving averages, it is likely to attract further selling and a drop to $9,080 is probable.
Ether (ETH) declined below the uptrend line on Aug. 9, but the bears could not break below the psychological support of $200. The bulls are now attempting to propel the price back above the uptrend line. If successful, the digital currency will again try to break out of $235.70. A move above this level is likely to resume the uptrend. We might suggest a long position on a close Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) above $235.70.
On the other hand, if the price fails to sustain above the uptrend line, bears will again attempt to break below the next support of $192.945. If this level breaks down, the ETH/USD pair will turn negative and can plunge to $164 and below it to $150. The gradually downsloping moving averages and RSI below 50 show that bears hold the advantage in the short term.
The bulls defended the critical support of $0.27795 on Aug. 10, which is a positive sign. However, the rebound has not been able to cross above the 20-day EMA, which shows a lack of buying at higher levels. If XRP again corrects to $0.27795, the probability of a breakdown increases.
The XRP/USD pair will become very negative if it breaks down of $0.27795, because it will trigger many stop losses and buying will dry up. The next target to watch on the downside is $0.19.
Conversely, if the price holds $0.27795 and rises above the 20-day EMA, it might consolidate between $0.27795 and $0.34229 for a few days. On a breakout of this range, we anticipate a move to $0.45. We suggest traders wait for the price to sustain above the 20-day EMA before turning positive. Until then, it is best to remain on the sidelines.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) bounced from $300.11 on Aug. 10, hence our recommended stop loss of $300 on the long position did not trigger. This is only a matter of chance as sometimes the stops hit and sometimes they miss by a whisker.
The bounce from $300.11 is facing resistance at the overhead resistance at $345.80. The 50-day SMA is just above this level. Hence, we expect bears to mount a stiff resistance in this zone.
If the BCH/USD pair turns down from the current levels and slides below $300, it can correct to the support line of the ascending channel. Below this support, we expect bears to attempt a breakdown of the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. If successful, the pair can plummet to $166.98.
However, if bulls break out of $357.36, which is the intraday high of Aug. 5, a rally to $428.54 and above it to $500 is probable.
The bulls are defending the support at $83.65 while bears are defending the 20-day EMA. Litecoin (LTC) is unlikely to remain in this tight range for long. We anticipate a breakout of the 20-day EMA or a breakdown of $83.65 within the next few days. If the price breaks down, it can correct to $76.7143 and below it to $58. Such a move will hurt sentiment and start a new downtrend.
However, if the price moves above the 20-day EMA, the LTC/USD pair might consolidate between $83.65 and $105.676 for a few days. We expect the uptrend to resume if the pair breaks out and sustains above $105.676. The next target will be a rally to $140.345. As both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in the negative zone, we will wait for the uptrend to resume before proposing a trade in it.
Binance Coin (BNB) has been consolidating in an uptrend for the past few days. As the trend remains up, traders can buy when it resumes its up move. It has been trading above the 20-day EMA for the past four days, but has not been able to break out of the overhead resistance at $32.50. A breakout of this resistance is likely to resume the uptrend and propel it to lifetime highs. Hence, traders can initiate long positions as recommended by us in an earlier analysis.
Both moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is close to the center. This points to a range-bound action for a few days. The consolidation might be between the boundaries of $24.1709 and $32. A breakdown of this range will be a negative move and can drag the BNB/USD pair to the next support at $18.30.
EOS is attempting to consolidate in a downtrend. It held the critical support of $3.8723 on Aug. 9 and 10, which shows buying at lower levels. However, the bounce from the support lacks strength because it has not been able to move above the 20-day EMA. If bulls can push the price above the 20-day EMA, the cryptocurrency can reach the 50-day SMA, which is close to the horizontal resistance of $4.8719. We anticipate a stiff resistance at this level, but if the price breaks out of it, a new uptrend is likely.
On the contrary, if bulls fail to push the EOS/USD pair above the 20-day EMA, it can again fall to $3.8723. We expect the next drop to break below the support and reach $3.30. The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is trying to rise to the midpoint. This suggests that the pair might remain range-bound for a few days. We will wait for the price to break out and close (UTC time) above $4.8719 before recommending a trade in it.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) has been trading between the support of $136.89 and the 20-day EMA for the past few days. This tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long. We expect a breakout of the 20-day EMA or a breakdown of $136.89 within the next few days.
If the breakout of the 20-day EMA happens with force, it will keep the BSV/USD pair range-bound between $136.89 and $188.69. If the sentiment improves, we might suggest a trade to benefit from this consolidation, but if the pair plummets below $138.89, it will re-enter the descending channel and drop to $107. Both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in negative zone, which shows that the path of least resistance is to the downside. Presently, we do not find any reliable buy setup on it.
Monero (XMR) is trading inside an ascending channel. It has corrected from the resistance line of the channel to the 20-day EMA, which has held for the past two days. If the price rebounds off it, we expect bulls to attempt a breakout of $98.2939 once again.
However, if the price breaks down of the 20-day EMA, it can drop to the support line of the channel. The bulls will attempt to defend this support and propel the XMR/USD pair back above both moving averages and the overhead resistance of $98.2939.
Conversely, if the price breaks down of the support line of the channel, it can correct to $72. Therefore, traders can keep the stops on the long position at $77.
Stellar (XLM) broke below the critical support of $0.072545 on Aug. 9, but the bears could not capitalize on the breakdown. This shows bottom-fishing by aggressive bulls. The digital currency has pulled back and has reached close to the 20-day EMA.
The bears have not been able to close (UTC time) above the 20-day EMA since breaking down of it on Jun. 25. This shows that bears are in command, but if the XLM/USD pair breaks out and closes (UTC time) above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate a likely change in trend.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from current levels once again and drops to new yearly lows, it will signal the start of a downtrend. The next support on the downside is at $0.05. We will wait for the digital currency to form a new buy setup before suggesting a trade in it.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.